On first pass, Paramatta and Central Dandenong have much in common.

Located roughly the same distance from their respective metropolitan CBDs, both centres have long been touted as the second cities of Sydney and Melbourne. Policy makers have imagined them as hosting government and private sector HQs, high-end retailers and major cultural attractions, thereby sparing their catchment populations the obligation to make the tortuous, congestion-laden trek into the inner urban region. By bringing specialised and higher paying jobs closer to suburban populations, these second cities were to improve labour market functionality and boost productivity in the regional economy.

Despite this shared vision, Paramatta and Dandenong sit at vastly different points in their journey towards fulfilling their promise. Paramatta has all but arrived. Its central activities area is bristling with office towers and high-density housing. At street level, Paramatta’s retail and hospitality offer is gathering a weight to rival those of the smaller capital cities across Australia.

Dandenong boasts some impressive stand-alone structures, such as a sparkling new civic centre. But, overwhelmingly, the place feels like it is waiting to be filled up, with several low intensity uses and even vacant sites scattered around what should be prime CBD real estate.

What explains this divergence? Simple geography is a big part of it. Paramatta is closer to the demographic centroid of the Sydney metro area, given that the historic centre is jammed up against the Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, given the Melbourne metropolitan area’s historic growth bias towards the South East, Dandenong has a nominal hinterland well in excess of a million people giving it every chance to assume a CBD role akin to those of central Perth or Adelaide.

Consistent, long-term and bi-partisan government policy has been vital to Paramatta’s success. This has spanned statutory planning measures to protect Paramatta’s status as a higher order centre, heavy investment in rail, tram and bus transport and proactive relocation of government administrative functions into the centre.

By contrast, government policy in support of Dandenong has been up and down. In the early 2000s, central Dandenong was the subject of an intensive $250 million effort led by the State’s urban regeneration outfit – Development Victoria (then known as VicUrban). This saw land acquisition to improve pedestrian links to the rail station, a complete makeover of the centre’s principal boulevard – Lonsdale Street – featuring quality paving and landscaping, and the consolidation of existing suburban government leases into a prominently located and architecturally striking joint services building. However, the follow-up since has been patchy, in part because Victorian Government metropolitan planning policy has moved towards promoting a multiplicity of suburban activity hubs rather than a handful of super-centres.

Is Dandenong destined to languish indefinitely while Paramatta powers on? If access to skills and know-how have anything to do with it, there is every chance that Dandenong can, in fact, fulfill its long inscribed destiny, albeit that its role and pathway will differ from those of the Paramatta model.

Access to highly skilled workers is arguably the single most important factor in the success of suburban employment nodes in modern, knowledge-based, services economies. As a result of strategic investment in public transport services, Paramatta is superbly placed in this regard.

The radial public transport system that hubs out of Paramatta means that some 114,000 workers with postgraduate qualifications – a proxy for the depth of available skills – can reach the centre within a half hour ride. A whopping 372,000 postgraduate qualified workers are within an hour’s ride, covering almost the whole metropolitan labour market. Meanwhile, Dandenong’s public transport is currently anchored by a linear heavy rail service. As a result, its catchment of highly skilled workers is smaller and more elongated in comparison to Paramatta. Fewer than half the number of the workers that can get to Paramatta within an hour on public transport can get to Dandenong in a ride of the same duration.

Looking at access to highly skilled workers by private transport, a different picture emerges. Dandenong has better access to skilled workers within a 30-minute drive and a comparable number within an hour’s drive.

The upshot is that Dandenong remains a strategic centre with great potential. It is especially well positioned to tap a deep and rich metropolitan labour pool, albeit this would occur via private car for the foreseeable future. As the centre gathers momentum and public transport services diversify and improve, one can expect its path to converge on that blazed by Paramatta.

Authors:

Dr Marcus Spiller, Principal & Partner, SGS Economics & Planning Pty Ltd

Aline Raad, Senior Consultant, SGS Economics & Planning Pty Ltd

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