As many as 1.5 million Australians could live in areas which are subject to coastal flooding risks by 2050, according to a new report.

And property values could drop by more than $600 billion per year whilst the annual cost of disaster recovery could rise to more than $40 billion.

On Monday, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen released the National Climate Risk Assessment report.

Compiled using data and analysis from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia, the report provides an assessment of current and future risks which are associated with global warming and more extreme weather events.

It three possible scenarios involving global temperature increases of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 degrees Celsius.

These were modelled across the three timeframes of current (2025), 2050 and 2090.

Overall, the report found that Australia is likely to experience more intense and more extreme climate hazards over coming decades.

It warned that hazards are likely to occur more frequently, may occur in combination and may potentially affect new locations.

From a built environment viewpoint, the report warns that consequences could be severe.

This will be the case as extreme weather events lead to property damage, higher insurance costs and the potential loss of homes. This is particularly the case in coastal areas which are vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

Assuming that populations remain as they are today, it warns more than 1.5 million people will live in areas that will be subject to sea level rise and coastal flooding risks by 2050.

In the more extreme three degree warming scenario, it warned that property values could drop by more than $600 billion per year and the annual cost of disaster recovery could rise to more than $40 billion.

According to the report, the most significant impacts will be felt in the Northern Territory, which will experience escalating challenges as its ‘proneness’ to hazards increases as the global temperature rises.

Also vulnerable will be outer metropolitan areas of cities, which the report says stand out as ‘watchpoints’.

These are susceptible on account of their location, demographics (often low socio-economic) and proneness to hazards.

Finally, increasing climate risks will exacerbate the existing vulnerability of remote communities on account of limitations in power and telecommunications supply along with weak supply chains.

Beyond the effect on properties, the report warns that climate impacts will have broader effects on the nation’s infrastructure system.

More frequent and intense heatwaves, for example, could stretch the resilience of the energy system.

Pressures on already limited water sources may be further exacerbated as a greater number of severe floods and bushfires degrade water quality.

The effects are likely to be most severe on people and households who are already disadvantaged.

For example, those with pre-existing health conditions are more vulnerable to extreme heat, floods, bushfires, poor air quality and communicable diseases.

In addition to the report, the Minister also released Australia’s first National Adaption Plan, which outlines have the Australian Government will respond to climate related risks.

It includes actions across the economy and trade; infrastructure and the built environment: natural environment; primary industries and food; health and social support, urban and regional communities and defence and national security.

The latest report comes as Australia is already experiencing severe impacts from climate related losses.

Over the five years to 2023/24, data from the Insurance Council of Australia indicated that the average annual cost of insurance payouts for damage relating to extreme weather events came in at $4.5 billion.

This was more than double the annual average of the past 30 years.

The report also comes days before the Government is set to announce Australia’s 2035 climate targets.

In a statement, Bowen welcomed the report.

“Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today but it’s clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come,” he said.

“Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment and our National Adaptation Plan are a roadmap to address the unavoidable impacts of climate change, to build a more resilient country for all communities, regions and industries.”

Speaking from a built environment viewpoint, Green Building Council of Australia CEO Davina Rooney said that the findings underscore the need to embed resilience into new buildings and communities.’

“The evidence is stark – climate impacts are accelerating, and the window to act is rapidly closing,” Rooney said.

“Our buildings are on the frontline of these risks, but they also give us one of the fastest and most cost-effective pathways to adapt.

“Every dollar invested in resilience now will save many more in avoided damage and disruption.”

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