Australia’s population has surged past 27.4 million even as the nation continues to face a severe housing crisis, new data shows.

And Aussies are continuing to desert Sydney and New South Wales in favour of Queensland and Western Australia.

In its latest report, the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicated that Australia’s population increased by 445,900 people or 1.7 percent during calendar 2024 to reach an estimated 27,400,013 as at December 31.

At this level, the population growth rate was lower compared with both the 2.4 percent and 2.1 percent growth rates that were recorded in 2023 and 2022 respectively.

However, the rate of growth remains elevated even compared with the extraordinarily high levels seen over the past two decades (see chart).

Driving the continued growth are ongoing high levels of immigration.

Across calendar 2024, Australia had a net overseas migration (permanent arrivals vs departures) of 340,800 people. This accounted for for more than three quarters of the nation’s population increase during the year (the remainder resulted from natural increase – births minus deaths).

In terms of states, Western Australia saw the greatest percentage increase in population (2.4 percent) last year. This was followed by Queensland and Victoria with 1.9 percent each.

On the flip side, below average levels of population growth are being seen in the Australian Capital Territory (1.4 percent) New South Wales (1.3 percent), Northern Territory (1.2 percent), South Australia (1.1 percent) and Tasmania (0.3 percent).

From a state/territory perspective, population movements are being driven by a combination of overseas migration and interstate migration.

In terms of the former, Western Australia gained the greatest share of international migrants on a proportional basis followed by Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT.

Turning to interstate migration, the data points to a continuation in movement away from New South Wales and toward Queensland and Western Australia.

All up, Queensland picked up a net of 25,940 people from interstate last year. Western Australia also gained a net of 12,612 from other states.

These people mainly came from New South Wales, which saw a net interstate outflow of 28,118 residents.

Such a movement likely reflects a combination of lifestyle choices, employment opportunities and the relative affordability of housing in Brisbane and Perth compared to that in Sydney.

The latest data comes amid concern that ongoing high levels of immigration and resultant population increase are placing unsustainable pressure on Australia’s infrastructure and are making homes unaffordable.

Assuming an average household size of 2.5 people (as per current ABS data), last year’s 340,800 net migration would consume around 136,320 dwellings.

This would take up around three quarters of the 182,075 new homes that were completed during the year even before the effect of natural population increase and demand associated with new household formation are added in. All this is before the nation even begins to address current housing shortages.

Concerns about the effect of immigration on housing affordability across Australia have grown over recent decades as high levels of immigration have coincided with a deterioration in affordability.

Over the past 20 years, the nation’s population has grown by more than one third (36.7 percent) from 20.0 million in December 2004 to 27.4 million in December last year.

This is more than four times the combined increase of 8.9 percent which occurred across G7 nations over the nineteen years between 2004 and 2023 (refer data from Statista.com – 2024 data not yet available).

The rise in population has coincided with a deterioration in housing affordability.

According to a recent analysis by CoreLogic, over the past 20 years in Australia:

• the ratio of dwelling prices to household income has increased from around 6.1 to 1 to 8.0 to 1
• the proportion of average household income which is required to service a new mortgage on a median priced home has increased from around 35 percent to around 50 percent
• the average time taken to save for a deposit on the average-priced home has increased from 8.2 years to 10.6 years; and
• the average percentage of income which is required to pay rent on an average rental property has increased from around 26 percent to 32.9 percent.

All this has led concerns that Australia’s immigration levels are too high.

A recent Lowy Institute poll found that 53 percent of Australians believe that current levels of immigration are too high.

These sentiments extend to the building industry specifically.

In a recent poll conducted of its members, the Housing Industry Association reported that 53.3 percent believed that Australia’s current level of population growth is too high.

Others, however, point also to the need to improve the way in which Australia’s plans its cities, regions and towns over the long term.

Matt Collins, CEO of the Planning Institute of Australia, said that the data pointed to a need for effective long-term planning.

This includes a stronger National Urban Policy.

“Australia’s population is continuing to grow, and regardless of what’s driving that growth, it reinforces the need for long-term, coordinated planning to ensure our cities and regions are prepared to meet future housing and infrastructure demands,” Collins said.

“We want to see national reforms to improve how we plan for a changing population, including a stronger National Urban Policy to help guide and manage population growth across the country.”

In addition, Collins said that better coordination in planning is necessary along with more investment to develop the nation’s planning workforce.

“Australia needs more homes, and they must be part of well-planned communities with the infrastructure, services and amenity people expect,” he said.

“Planners are central to enabling the right homes in the right places, including well-designed medium and higher density housing near jobs, transport and services.

“We want to see planning systems work better, including through better data and digital tools and clearer links between infrastructure funding and housing delivery. Sustained investment in the planning workforce is also essential to meet growing demand and to overcome the national shortage of planners.”

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