New Zealand Economic Bubble Predicted to Burst

Monday, April 21st, 2014
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New Zealand’s economy is heading for a crisis, according to a commentator writing in Forbes magazine.

Jesse Colombo outlines 12 reasons why New Zealand’s economic bubble will end in disaster and he catalogues the likely fallout.

“New Zealand’s economy has been hailed as one of world’s top safe-haven economies in recent years after it emerged from global financial crisis relatively unscathed.

“Unfortunately, my research has found that many of today’s so-called safe-havens (such as Singapore) are experiencing economic bubbles that are strikingly similar to those that led to the financial crisis in the first place,” Mr Colombo says.

His lists of reasons why a crisis is coming includes high interest rates, high property prices, the exposure of banks to the property market and the high New Zealand dollar.

“As if the fact that almost half of New Zealand’s mortgages have floating rates isn’t scary enough, mortgages now account for 60 per cent of the country’s banks loan portfolios, which means that the financial sector is heavily exposed to the eventual popping of the housing bubble,” he said.

When the bubble bursts the price of property, shares and bonds will fall, people will default on debt and banks will notch up losses.

The economy will contract, unemployment will rise and the New Zealand dollar will fall.

In February, SLJ Macro Partners analyst Stephen Jen likened the New Zealand economy to Ireland’s economy before it collapsed.

In a speech last week Finance Minister Bill English said the May 15 budget would forecast growth of between two and four per cent a year out to 2018.

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