Rising interest rates and housing supply are likely to push Australian home prices lower in 2018, and they won't rise again until 2021, according to a report by ratings agency Moody's and housing market analytics business CoreLogic.
Detached housing prices are forecast to rise 5.6 per cent this year, before sliding 0.6 per cent in 2018, dropping another 0.3 per cent in 2019, and stay flat in 2020, according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast
The main drivers of the falls will be rising mortgage interest rates and dampened demand due to increased housing supply, the report says.
“The major banks have increased lending rates out of step with the central bank,” the report says.
“Some of this action is being driven by regulatory tightening and will encourage a slowdown in market activity this year and next.”
Sydney and Melbourne, the nation’s strongest property markets, will both experience price falls over the next couple of years.
Moody’s doesn’t expect steep price falls in Sydney, but said prices there will be stagnate until 2020.
“The degree of correction will likely be uniform across apartments and detached houses,” the report said.
Melbourne prices are also set to fall, but detached house prices are likely to slide more than apartment values.
Moody’s said that’s because that market has already begun pricing in looming apartment supply jumps, with apartment prices rising just 2.8 per cent in the year to January.
But the Melbourne market is yet to react to a predicted rise in detached house supply, with house prices jumping 12.8 per cent in the year to January.
“Contrary to popular belief, the correction will likely be more severe in detached housing than apartments,” the report said.
Moody’s said Brisbane’s property market will cool in 2017 and 2018, particularly in the strongly supplied apartment segment, where prices will be flat.
However, Brisbane prices are expected to recover from 2018 onwards, supported by population growth.