As a New Year approaches, we can hold a positive short-term outlook for housing, but we will also face heightened uncertainty in 2016.

The cycle for new dwelling commencements looks like it peaked in fiscal year 2014/15, or perhaps in calendar year 2015, if we want to split straws. That has been our view for a considerable time. Renovations activity is still grinding out a recovery, with little sign at this stage of…